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Read the Market

Chapter 01

The narrative

Work out where price wants to go before looking for an entry.

15 min read

The only question that matters before you enter

A beginner opens a chart and looks for an entry signal. That’s the wrong way round. The first question isn’t where do I get in, but where is price trying to go.

The method has a name for that destination: the draw on liquidity, price’s pull toward liquidity. Until it’s identified, every setup in the world is worthless, because the same pattern plays out one way or the other depending on the overall direction.

Where liquidity sits

Liquidity is resting orders. They aren’t spread out at random: they pile up where everyone is looking. Below an obvious low there are sell orders. Above an obvious high there are buy orders.

A level everyone can see is a level where everyone has put their stop
BSLSSL
BSLBuy-side liquidity: buy orders resting above the highs. Sellers’ stops and breakout buyers.
SSLSell-side liquidity: the same thing below the lows, as sell orders.
Two highs at the same price don’t make solid resistance: they make a pool of orders, and price has a mechanical reason to go and get it.

This flips a very common reflex. People are often taught that a double top is solid resistance that will push price back down. In this reading it’s the opposite: a double top is a clearly visible pool of orders, and so a likely destination.

The retail trap

The market doesn’t just move toward liquidity: it actively creates the conditions for orders to build up where it wants to go.

The liquidity trap, in three steps
SSL

1. The level becomes obvious

Price leaves a clean low, then moves back up. That low is now visible on every screen. Beneath it pile up the stops of anyone long and the orders of anyone waiting to sell the break. Nobody has done anything foolish yet: the level really does matter.

What matters is the sequence. A sweep on its own proves nothing; a break followed by a real move in the same direction is just a break. What gives the trap away is the quick return above the broken level, with no follow-through.

Inducement

The trap describes a general tendency: the market sets traps. Inducement, by contrast, is a precise object with a fixed place in a sequence. It’s the most important concept in the course, and the most often misunderstood.

Many definitions simply say that an obvious level gets swept before the move starts. That’s too broad: put that way, you find inducement everywhere, so it’s useless. Here the definition is strict.

Inducement and the Protected Low, in order
OB

1. The order block is marked

An order block is a whole candle: its wick and its body. The zone runs from one end to the other, with its 50% dashed through the middle. Price reaches it, and at this point there’s nothing to do: touching a zone proves nothing.

Everything rests on the order of the four steps: the zone, a first contact that stops short of the 50%, the sweep of that low, then the move away from the Protected Low. If one is missing, the sequence is incomplete, and an incomplete sequence isn’t a signal.

Sell side: the same sequence, inside two nested zones
OB 1HOB 15'ESLInducementProtected HighSWEEP
OB 1HThe wide zone, marked on the 1-hour. It tells you where to look.
OB 15'The refined zone, inside it. Its 50% is what counts.
INDUCEMENTThe high of the first contact, which doesn’t reach the 15-minute OB’s 50%.
PROTECTED HIGHThe high created by the sweep. You sell to move away from it, stop just above.
It’s the buy diagram, flipped. Everything reverses except the logic: a first contact that stops short of the 50%, a sweep, and an extreme assumed to be protected.

On the sell side, only the words change: the first contact leaves a high, its sweep creates the Protected High, and the stop goes above it. The example is drawn inside two nested zones, a 1-hour order block with a 15-minute order block inside it, because that’s how the sequence most often shows up.

The same zone, left without inducement
OBexit, no toll paidand back
OBThe same zone as in the previous diagram, tested the same way.
exitPrice does leave the zone to the upside. But no first contact left a low, nothing was swept, so there’s no Protected Low to hold the exit.
Both diagrams have the same zone and the same exit. Only one paid a toll before leaving, and that’s the only difference that counts.

This counter-example is the most useful thing in the chapter. The two diagrams start the same and exit the same, to the upside. The first took something before leaving, the second didn’t, and that’s all that separates them. Learning to see that difference is what this course is really about.

SMT: when NQ and ES disagree

NQ isn’t read on its own. It has a neighbor, ES, the futures contract on the S&P 500, which almost always moves the same way. Almost: the moments they split apart are exactly the ones that matter.

Two indices, one level, two different answers
lower lowNQ
higher lowES
NQThe Nasdaq 100 sweeps its previous low: it makes a lower low.
ESThe S&P 500, at the same moment, can’t: its low stays higher.
Two indices that usually move together, telling different stories at the same moment: that’s the inconsistency an SMT flags.

That’s what the method calls an SMT: a divergence between two correlated markets. One sweeps a low, the other refuses to. The market is no longer consistent, and that inconsistency is information.

Internal and external liquidity

Not all liquidity does the same job, and that’s what will set your exit targets in chapter 04.

Two kinds of liquidity, two jobs
EXTEXTINTERNAL
externalThe week’s or the previous day’s extremes. That’s the destination: it’s where you aim your exits.
internalThe small highs and lows inside the move. That’s the fuel: price picks them up along the way.
Mixing them up is costly both ways: aiming for external liquidity on a bounce trade, or exiting at internal liquidity when you’re with the trend.

External liquidity is a destination: the previous day’s and week’s extremes. Internal liquidity is fuel: the small highs and lows price collects on the way, which make sensible exits when you’re trading against the trend.

Setting the day’s bias

The daily bias isn’t a mood. It follows from how price reacts after taking a significant level of liquidity on a higher timeframe.

The morning question: which of the two will price go for
PWHPWLdraw
PWHPrevious week’s high. A pool of buy-side liquidity.
PWLPrevious week’s low. A pool of sell-side liquidity.
drawWhichever of the two price is drawn toward. It’s the only directional decision of the day.
Until you’ve answered this question, no setup is valid, however clean it looks. A setup with no direction is a coin toss.

The read comes in two steps, in this order:

  • Which significant level was taken recently? Last week’s high, yesterday’s low, a session extreme.
  • How did price react right after? If it turned sharply the other way, the level was swept and the draw is on the other side. If it kept going, the next liquidity in the same direction becomes the target.